Progression of Pancreatic Branch Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm Associates With Cyst Size.

Backgrounds & Aims: Most guidelines for management of patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) vary in proposed surveillance intervals and durations-these are usually determined based on expert opinions rather than substantial evidence. The progression of and optimal surveillance intervals for branch-duct IPMNs (BD-IPMN) has not been widely studied. We evaluated the progression of BD-IPMN under surveillance at a single center, and determined optimal follow-up intervals and duration.

Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 1369 patients with BD-IPMN seen at Seoul National University Hospital in Korea from January 2001 through December 2016. We included only patients whose imaging studies showed classical features of BD-IPMN, and collected data from each patient over time periods of at least 3 years. We reviewed radiologic and pathologic findings, and performed linear and binary logistic regressions to estimate cyst growth.

Results: The median annual growth rate of the cyst was 0.8 mm over a median follow-up time of 61 months. During surveillance, 46 patients (3.4%) underwent surgery because of disease progression after a median follow-up time (in this group) of 62 months. Worrisome features were observed in 209 patients (15.3%) during surveillance, including cyst size of 3 cm or more (n = 109, 8.0%), cyst wall thickening (n = 51, 3.7%), main pancreatic duct dilatation (n = 77, 5.6%), and mural nodule (n = 43, 3.1%). Along with annual rate of cyst growth, incidences of main pancreatic duct dilatation and mural nodules associated with the sizes of cysts at detection (P < .001).

Conclusions: In a retrospective analysis of patients with BD-IPMN followed for more than 5 years, we found most cysts to be indolent, but some rapidly grew and progressed. Surveillance protocols should therefore be individualized based on initial cyst size and rate of growth.