We propose a diffusion process to describe the global dynamic evolution of credit operations at a national level given observed operations at a subnational level in a sovereign country. Empirical analysis with a unique dataset from Brazilian federate constituents supports the conclusions. Despite the heterogeneity observed in credit operations at a subnational level, the aggregated dynamics at a national level were accurately described by the proposed model. Results may guide management of public finances, particularly debt manager authorities in charge of reaching surplus targets.
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5628819 | PMC |
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0185257 | PLOS |
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