Long-term modelling of fly ash and radionuclide emissions as well as deposition fluxes due to the operation of large oil shale-fired power plants.

Two of the world's largest oil shale-fired power plants (PPs) in Estonia have been operational over 40 years, emitting various pollutants, such as fly ash, SO, NO, heavy metals, volatile organic compounds as well as radionuclides to the environment. The emissions from these PPs have varied significantly during this period, with the maximum during the 1970s and 1980s. The oil shale burned in the PPs contains naturally occurring radionuclides from the U and Th decay series as well as K. These radionuclides become enriched in fly ash fractions (up to 10 times), especially in the fine fly ash escaping the purification system. Using a validated Gaussian-plume model, atmospheric dispersion modelling was carried out to determine the quantity and a real magnitude of fly ash and radionuclide deposition fluxes during different decades. The maximum deposition fluxes of volatile radionuclides (Pb and Po) were around 70 mBq m d nearby the PPs during 1970s and 1980s. Due to the reduction of burned oil shale and significant renovations done on the PPs, the deposition fluxes were reduced to 10 mBq m d in the 2000s and down to 1.5 mBq m d in 2015. The maximum deposition occurs within couple of kilometers of the PPs, but the impacted area extends to over 50 km from the sources. For many radionuclides, including Po, the PPs have been larger contributors of radionuclides to the environment via atmospheric pathway than natural sources. This is the first time that the emissions and deposition fluxes of radionuclides from the PPs have been quantified, providing the information about their radionuclide deposition load on the surrounding environment during various time periods.