The presence of small joint contractures is a risk factor for survival in 439 patients with systemic sclerosis.

Objectives: Analysis of risk factors and mortality of 439 patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) in a tertiary care centre.

Methods: The mean follow up time was 8.4±5.6 years. Lost to follow up rate was 6.4%. Female to male ratio was 366 to 73. Two hundred sixty patients had limited and 179 diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc). A standard protocol including musculoskeletal examinations was used for the assessment of patients.

Results: By Kaplan-Meier analysis the overall 5-, 10- and 15 year survival were 88.2%, 79.9% and 73.6%, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that dcSSc, male gender, presence of small joint contractures, pulmonary interstitial, cardiac, oesophageal involvement, scleroderma renal crisis, arterial hypertension, anti-topoisomerase antibody, anemia, hypalbuminemia, coexistent malignancies and elevated erythrocyte sedimentation were associated with poor survival. Lack of giant capillaries, avascular zones or neo-angiogenesis on capillaroscopy, and presence of anti-centromere antibodies were associated with favourable outcome. Multivariate regression analysis showed presence of small joint contractures, history of arterial hypertension, male gender, diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide <50%, right ventricular pressure >40 mmHg on echocardiography, less than 50% ejection fraction, anti-topoisomerase I positivity, anemia, and serum albumin concentration < 35 g/l as well as current or history of coexistent malignancy were independent poor prognostic factors.

Conclusions: In addition to well-known factors predicting poor outcome in SSc, the presence of small joint contractures was a newly identi ed independent risk factor of mortality. Our data also confirmed a recent finding showing that history of arterial hypertension was also a poor prognostic factor.