Rate of Change of Premeal Glucose Measured by Continuous Glucose Monitoring Predicts Postmeal Glycemic Excursions in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes: Implications for Therapy.

Background: Patients with type 1 diabetes routinely utilize a single premeal fingerstick glucose to determine premeal insulin doses. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides much richer glycemic trend information, including glycemic slope (GS). How to incorporate this information into dosing decisions remains an open question.

Methods: We examined the relationship between premeal GS and postmeal glycemic excursions in 240 individuals with type 1 diabetes receiving CGM augmented insulin pump therapy. Over 23.5 million CGM values were synchronized with 264 500 meals. CGM values were integrated 2 hours premeal to compute GS and 2 hours postmeal to compute glycemic excursion outcomes. Postmeal hyperglycemia (integrated CGM glucose >180 mg/dL*hr) and postmeal hypoglycemic events (any CGM glucose < 70 mg/dL) were tabulated according to positive/negative premeal GS and according to GS bins commonly displayed as rate-of-change arrows on CGM devices.

Results: Positive versus negative premeal GS was associated with a 2.28-fold (95% CI 2.25-2.32) risk of postmeal hyperglycemia. Negative versus positive premeal GS was associated with a 2.36-fold (95% CI 2.25-2.43) increase in one or more postprandial hypoglycemic events. Premeal GS in the bin currently displayed as "no change" on existing CGM devices (-1 to 1 mg/dL/min), conferred a 1.82-fold (95% CI 1.79-1.86) risk of postprandial hyperglycemia when positive and a 2.06-fold (95% CI 1.99-2.15) increased risk of postprandial hypoglycemia when negative.

Conclusion: Premeal GS predicts postmeal glycemic excursions and may help inform insulin dosing decisions. Rate-of-change arrows on existing devices obscure clinically actionable glycemic trend information from CGM users.