Fibrosis-4 Index Helps Identify HBV Carriers With the Lowest Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Objectives: Several viral and host risk factors have been used to predict risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic infection of hepatitis B virus (HBV). However, little is known whether fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, a liver fibrosis biomarker, helps identify non-cirrhotic patients with the lowest HCC risk.

Methods: A total of 2075 treatment-naive Taiwanese patients with chronic HBV infection were followed for an average period of 16.02 years. None of them had liver cirrhosis at baseline. We explored whether a low FIB-4 index complements the favourable predictors to defines patients with the lowest HCC risk. The finding was validated in 532 non-cirrhotic patients receiving long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue (NUC) treatment with suppressed viral replication.

Results: A total of 137 treatment-naive and 10 NUC-treated patients developed HCC, respectively. We found that HCC risk started to increase when baseline FIB-4 index >1.29 in the treatment-naive cohort. Patients with FIB-4 >1.29, compared to those with FIB-4 <1.29, were associated with a higher risk of HCC with hazards ratio of 5.56 (95% confidence interval: 3.93-7.86). More importantly, among patients with low viral load (HBV DNA level <2,000 IU/ml), baseline FIB-4 index helped stratify different HCC risks such that none of 326 HBeAg-negative patients with FIB-4 index <1.29, ALT level <40 U/l, and HBsAg level <1,000 IU/ml developed HCC. In addition, the patients with the FIB-4 index <1.29 consistently had the lowest HCC risks in the validation cohort receiving long-term NUC treatment.

Conclusions: In non-cirrhotic patients with chronic HBV infection, FIB-4 index <1.29 complements the existing clinical profile to define patients with the lowest HCC risk.