The article presents a methodical approach for prediction of life expectancy for people diagnosed with prostate cancer based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems. The life expectancy is calculated by solving the differential equation for the rate of aging for three different stage of life - «normal» life, life with prostate cancer and life after combination therapy for prostate cancer. The mathematical model of aging for each stage of life has its own parameters identified by the statistical analysis of healthcare data from the Zharinov's databank and Rosstat CDR NES databank. The core of the methodical approach is the statistical correlation between growth rate of the prostate specific antigen level (PSA-level) or the PSA doubling time (PSA DT) before therapy, and lifespan: the higher the PSA DT is, the greater lifespan. The patients were grouped under the «fast PSA DT» and «slow PSA DT» categories. The satisfactory matching between calculations and experiment is shown. The prediction error of group life expectancy is due to the completeness and reliability of the main data source. A detailed monitoring of the basic health indicators throughout the each person life in each analyzed group is required. The absence of this particular information makes it impossible to predict the individual life expectancy.
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Sci Rep
January 2025
Department of Gynecology, People's Hospital of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan, 750002, Ningxia, China.
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Feil Family Brain and Mind Research Institute, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA. Electronic address:
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January 2025
Diagnostic Laboratory Sciences and Technology Research Center, School of Paramedical Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran. Electronic address:
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View Article and Find Full Text PDFPLoS One
January 2025
Institute for Palliative Care, Region Skåne and Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
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