The use of TCP based EUD to rank and compare lung radiotherapy plans: in-silico study to evaluate the correlation between TCP with physical quality indices.

Background: To apply the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) radiobiological model to estimate the tumor control probability (TCP) scores for treatment plans using different radiobiological parameter settings, and to evaluate the correlation between TCP and physical quality indices of the treatment plans.

Methods: Ten radiotherapy treatment plans for lung cancer were generated. The dose distributions were calculated using anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA). Dose parameters and quality indices derived from dose volume histograms (DVH) for target volumes were evaluated. The predicted TCP was computed using EUD model with tissue-specific parameter (a=-10). The assumed radiobiological parameter setting for adjuvant therapy [tumor dose to control 50% of the tumor (TCD) =36.5 Gy and γ=0.72] and curative intent (TCD=51.24 Gy and γ=0.83) were used. The bootstrap method was used to estimate the 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The coefficients (ρ) from Spearman's rank test were calculated to assess the correlation between quality indices with TCP. Wilcoxon paired test was used to calculate P value.

Results: The 95% CI of TCP were 70.6-81.5 and 46.6-64.7, respectively, for adjuvant radiotherapy and curative intent. The TCP outcome showed a positive and good correlation with calculated dose to 95% of the target volume (D95%) and minimum dose (Dmin). Consistently, TCP correlate negatively with heterogeneity indices.

Conclusions: This study confirms that more relevant and robust radiobiological parameters setting should be integrated according to cancer type. The positive correlation with quality indices gives chance to improve the clinical out-come by optimizing the treatment plans to maximize the Dmin and D95%. This attempt to increase the TCP should be carried out with the respect of dose constraints for organs at risks. However, the negative correlation with heterogeneity indices shows that the optimization of beam arrangements could be also useful. Attention should be paid to obtain an appropriate optimization of initial plans, when comparing and ranking radiotherapy plans using TCP models, to avoid over or underestimated for TCP outcome.