Non-invasive prediction of recurrence in bladder cancer by detecting somatic TERT promoter mutations in urine.

Background: Urothelial bladder cancer (UBC) is characterised by a high risk of recurrence. Patient monitoring is currently based on iterative cystoscopy and on urine cytology with low sensitivity in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) is frequently reactivated in UBC by promoter mutations.

Methods: We studied whether detection of TERT mutation in urine could be a predictor of UBC recurrence and compared this to cytology/cystoscopy for patient follow-up. A total of 348 patients treated by transurethral bladder resection for UBC were included together with 167 control patients.

Results: Overall sensitivity was 80.5% and specificity 89.8%, and was not greatly impacted by inflammation or infection. TERT remaining positive after initial surgery was associated with residual carcinoma in situ. TERT in urine was a reliable and dynamic predictor of recurrence in NMIBC (P<0.0001). In univariate analysis, TERT positive-status after initial surgery increased risk of recurrence by 5.34-fold (P=0.0004). TERT positive-status was still associated with recurrence in the subset of patients with negative cystoscopy (P=0.034).

Conclusions: TERT mutations in urine might be helpful for early detection of recurrence in UBC, especially in NMIBC.