Classification of caesarean section and normal vaginal deliveries using foetal heart rate signals and advanced machine learning algorithms.

Background: Visual inspection of cardiotocography traces by obstetricians and midwives is the gold standard for monitoring the wellbeing of the foetus during antenatal care. However, inter- and intra-observer variability is high with only a 30% positive predictive value for the classification of pathological outcomes. This has a significant negative impact on the perinatal foetus and often results in cardio-pulmonary arrest, brain and vital organ damage, cerebral palsy, hearing, visual and cognitive defects and in severe cases, death. This paper shows that using machine learning and foetal heart rate signals provides direct information about the foetal state and helps to filter the subjective opinions of medical practitioners when used as a decision support tool. The primary aim is to provide a proof-of-concept that demonstrates how machine learning can be used to objectively determine when medical intervention, such as caesarean section, is required and help avoid preventable perinatal deaths.

Methods: This is evidenced using an open dataset that comprises 506 controls (normal virginal deliveries) and 46 cases (caesarean due to pH ≤ 7.20-acidosis, n = 18; pH > 7.20 and pH < 7.25-foetal deterioration, n = 4; or clinical decision without evidence of pathological outcome measures, n = 24). Several machine-learning algorithms are trained, and validated, using binary classifier performance measures.

Results: The findings show that deep learning classification achieves sensitivity = 94%, specificity = 91%, Area under the curve = 99%, F-score = 100%, and mean square error = 1%.

Conclusions: The results demonstrate that machine learning significantly improves the efficiency for the detection of caesarean section and normal vaginal deliveries using foetal heart rate signals compared with obstetrician and midwife predictions and systems reported in previous studies.