Useful Endoscopic Ultrasonography Parameters and a Predictive Model for the Recurrence of Esophageal Varices and Bleeding after Variceal Ligation.

Background/aims: To identify the usefulness of endoscopic ultrasonography with a mini-probe (EUM) and to create a predictive model for esophageal variceal (EV) recurrence and bleeding following esophageal variceal ligation (EVL).

Methods: A total of 144 patients who received EUM prior to prophylactic EVL and met the inclusion criteria were enrolled. EUM findings, EV diameter, paraesophageal vein diameter, and the number of perforating veins were assessed.

Results: EV recurrence was observed in 42 patients (29.2%), 10 of whom experienced EV bleeding. Larger diameter of the paraesophageal vein (odds ratio [OR], 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17 to 1.96; p=0.002) and perforating vein (OR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.11 to 9.65; p=0.032) were significant predictive factors for EV recurrence. However, the diameter of the paraesophageal vein was the only significant risk factor for EV bleeding (adjusted OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.16; p=0.022). The areas under the curves of the predictive model for EV recurrence and bleeding were 0.872 (95% CI, 0.811 to 0.934) and 0.811 (95% CI, 0.630 to 0.992), respectively.

Conclusions: The diameter of the paraesophageal vein was a significant predictive factor for EV recurrence and bleeding. The predictive model constructed based on the significant EUM findings exhibited good performance.