Prediction of 6-minute walk performance in patients with peripheral artery disease.

Background: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a highly prevalent disease that impairs walking ability. Walking tests, such as the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) and 4-meter walk test, are commonly used to assess exercise endurance and ambulatory function over a short distance, respectively. The 6MWT performance is predictive of PAD severity and disease outcomes, but it is not feasible in many clinical settings because it requires a long walkway to serve as the test route and lengthens clinic visits. As an alternative, the 4-meter walk test is convenient, inexpensive, and repeatable, but whether it accurately predicts endurance performance in the long-distance 6MWT is not known. The goal of this study was to develop a statistical model to predict 6MWT gait speed from 4-meter walk test results and clinical characteristics among patients with PAD.

Methods: Measures of 6MWT gait speed were derived from 183 patients with symptomatic PAD who were evaluated at the University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center (2004-2012). The testing procedures and research personnel remained constant throughout the duration of the study. Independent variables included demographic and clinical information and 4-meter walk test gait speed. Fivefold cross validation and manual backward selection were used for model selection. Adjusted R and corrected Akaike information criterion were applied to quantify the predictive performance of the regression models.

Results: A total of 183 people (54% male; mean age, 65 [standard deviation (SD), 10] years) with moderate PAD severity (ankle-brachial index [ABI]; mean, 0.72 [SD, 0.24]) performed the walking tests. Participants covered an average distance of 335 (SD, 97) m distance in the 6MWT. The 4-meter walk gait speed, ABI, and dyspnea were independent predictors of 6MWT speed in the multivariate model (adjusted R = 0.55). The model resulted in 95% prediction interval widths of 30 m for mean and 260 m for individual predicted 6MWT distance measures.

Conclusions: Slower 4-meter walking speed, lower ABI, and presence of dyspnea all predict slower 6MWT gait speed, which corresponds to shorter 6MWT distance. Prediction of group means is reasonably precise; however, prediction of individual patient 6MWT performance is imprecise relative to between-group differences that are clinically important.