[Formula: see text]Determination of the smoking gun of intent: significance testing of forced choice results in social security claimants.

Objective: Significantly below-chance findings on forced choice tests have been described as revealing "the smoking gun of intent" that proved malingering. The issues of probability levels, one-tailed vs. two-tailed tests, and the combining of PVT scores on significantly below-chance findings were addressed in a previous study, with a recommendation of a probability level of .20 to test the significance of below-chance results. The purpose of the present study was to determine the rate of below-chance findings in a Social Security Disability claimant sample using the previous recommendations.

Method: We compared the frequency of below-chance results on forced choice performance validity tests (PVTs) at two levels of significance, .05 and .20, and when using significance testing on individual subtests of the PVTs compared with total scores in claimants for Social Security Disability in order to determine the rate of the expected increase.

Results: The frequency of significant results increased with the higher level of significance for each subtest of the PVT and when combining individual test sections to increase the number of test items, with up to 20% of claimants showing significantly below-chance results at the higher p-value.

Conclusions: These findings are discussed in light of Social Security Administration policy, showing an impact on policy issues concerning child abuse and neglect, and the importance of using these techniques in evaluations for Social Security Disability.