ESRD After Heart Failure, Myocardial Infarction, or Stroke in Type 2 Diabetic Patients With CKD.

Background: How cardiovascular (CV) events affect progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), particularly in the setting of type 2 diabetes, remains uncertain.

Study Design: Observational study.

Setting & Participants: 4,022 patients with type 2 diabetes, anemia, and chronic kidney disease from the Trial to Reduce Cardiovascular Events With Aranesp Therapy (TREAT).

Predictor: Postrandomization CV events.

Outcomes: ESRD (defined as initiation of dialysis for >30 days, kidney transplantation, or refusal or nonavailability of renal replacement therapy) and post-ESRD mortality within 30 days and during overall follow-up after an intercurrent CV event.

Limitations: Population limited to clinical trial participants with diabetes and anemia.

Results: 155 of 652 (23.8%) ESRD cases occurred after an intercurrent CV event; 110 (16.9%) cases followed heart failure, 28 (4.3%) followed myocardial infarction, 12 (1.84%) followed stroke, and 5 (0.77%) followed multiple CV events. ESRD rate was higher within 30 days in individuals with an intercurrent CV event compared with those without an intercurrent event (HR, 22.2; 95% CI, 17.0-29.0). Compared to no intercurrent CV events, relative risks for ESRD were higher after the occurrence of heart failure overall (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.7-4.2) and at 30 days (HR, 20.1; 95% CI, 14.5-27.9) than after myocardial infarction or stroke (P<0.001). Compared with individuals without pre-ESRD events, those with ESRD following intercurrent CV events were older, were more likely to have prior CV disease, and had higher (24.4 vs 23.1mL/min/1.73m; P=0.01) baseline estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) and higher eGFRs at last measurement before ESRD (18.6 vs 15.2mL/min/1.73m; P<0.001), whereas race, sex, and medication use were similar. Post-ESRD mortality was similar (P=0.3) with and without preceding CV events.

Conclusions: Most ESRD cases occurred in individuals without intercurrent CV events who had lower eGFRs than individuals with intercurrent CV events, but similar post-ESRD mortality. Nevertheless, intercurrent CV events, particularly heart failure, are strongly associated with risk for ESRD. These findings underscore the need for kidney-specific therapies in addition to treatment of CV risk factors to lower ESRD incidence in diabetes.