WAITING FOR SPECIATION: THE EFFECT OF POPULATION SUBDIVISION ON THE TIME TO SPECIATION.

We study the time required for speciation in a species that is divided into small versus large populations. Following Dobzhansky and Muller, we assume that hybrid sterility or inviability is caused by "complementary genes," that is, by the accumulation of genes that cause sterility or inviability when brought together in hybrids but that have no deleterious effect on their normal species genetic background. When divergence between populations is caused by genetic drift, we show that the time to speciation is independent of population subdivision: speciation occurs just as quickly in a species split into a few large populations as into many small populations. When divergence is driven by natural selection, however, the time to speciation is very sensitive to population subdivision and speciation occurs most rapidly when a species is split into two large populations. These results contradict several popular intuitions about the effect of population size on speciation.