Coronary computed tomography angiography derived risk score in predicting cardiac events.

Background: We evaluated the prognostic value of an integrated atherosclerosis risk score combining the markers of coronary plaque burden, location and composition as assessed by computed tomography angiography (CTA).

Methods: 922 consecutive patients underwent CTA for suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Patients without atherosclerosis (n = 261) and in whom quantitative CTA analysis was not feasible due to image quality, step-artefacts or technical factors related to image acquisition or data storage (n = 153) were excluded. Thus, final study group consisted of 508 patients aged 63 ± 9 years. Coronary plaque location, severity and composition for each coronary segment were identified using automated CTA quantification software and integrated in a single CTA score (0-42). Adverse events (AE) including death, myocardial infarction (MI) and unstable angina (UA) were obtained from the national healthcare statistics.

Results: There were a total of 20 (4%) AE during a median follow-up of 3.6 years (9 deaths, 5 MI and 6 UA). The CTA risk score was divided into tertiles: 0-6.7, 6.8-14.8 and > 14.8, respectively. All MI (n = 5) and most of the other AE occurred in the highest risk score tertile (3 vs. 3 vs. 14, p = 0.002). After correction for age and gender, the CTA risk score remained independently associated with AE.

Conclusions: Comprehensive CTA risk score integrating the location, burden and composition of coronary atherosclerosis predicts future cardiac events in patients with suspected CAD.