The risk of gastric cancer in patients with gastric intestinal metaplasia in 5-year follow-up.

Background: Gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) is the premalignant stage of gastric cancer; however, consensus on its management has not been established.

Aim: To determine the risk factors for gastric cancer in a population of patients with GIM to guide the appropriate clinical recommendations in a low prevalence area for gastric cancer.

Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study. Ninety-one patients with GIM diagnosed between 2004 and 2014 were recruited for surveillance EGD every 6-12 months until a diagnosis of gastric cancer or completion of the planned 5-year follow-up duration. Possible risk factors for gastric cancer were assessed.

Results: At initial presentation, 81 of the 91 patients (89%) had complete GIM, whereas the remaining 11% had a study entry diagnosis of incomplete GIM. No cancer developed amongst patients with complete GIM. In contrast, five of the 10 patients exhibiting incomplete GIM (50%) progressed to high-grade dysplasia (n=2) or cancer (n=3). Male gender (P=.027), and incomplete GIM (P=.001) were associated with high-risk histology (dysplasia or cancer) by study end. A trend suggested a possible association with smoking (P=.08).

Conclusion: Male patients and those with incomplete GIM are at greatest risk of developing dysplasia or early gastric cancer. Further studies in determining optimal surveillance intervals and impact on cancer incidence and mortality are still required.