Early clinical predictors and correlates of long-term morbidity in bipolar disorder.

Objectives: Identifying factors predictive of long-term morbidity should improve clinical planning limiting disability and mortality associated with bipolar disorder (BD).

Methods: We analyzed factors associated with total, depressive and mania-related long-term morbidity and their ratio D/M, as %-time ill between a first-lifetime major affective episode and last follow-up of 207 BD subjects. Bivariate comparisons were followed by multivariable linear regression modeling.

Results: Total % of months ill during follow-up was greater in 96 BD-II (40.2%) than 111 BD-I subjects (28.4%; P=0.001). Time in depression averaged 26.1% in BD-II and 14.3% in BD-I, whereas mania-related morbidity was similar in both, averaging 13.9%. Their ratio D/M was 3.7-fold greater in BD-II than BD-I (5.74 vs. 1.96; P<0.0001). Predictive factors independently associated with total %-time ill were: [a] BD-II diagnosis, [b] longer prodrome from antecedents to first affective episode, and [c] any psychiatric comorbidity. Associated with %-time depressed were: [a] BD-II diagnosis, [b] any antecedent psychiatric syndrome, [c] psychiatric comorbidity, and [d] agitated/psychotic depressive first affective episode. Associated with %-time in mania-like illness were: [a] fewer years ill and [b] (hypo)manic first affective episode. The long-term D/M morbidity ratio was associated with: [a] anxious temperament, [b] depressive first episode, and [c] BD-II diagnosis.

Conclusions: Long-term depressive greatly exceeded mania-like morbidity in BD patients. BD-II subjects spent 42% more time ill overall, with a 3.7-times greater D/M morbidity ratio, than BD-I. More time depressed was predicted by agitated/psychotic initial depressive episodes, psychiatric comorbidity, and BD-II diagnosis. Longer prodrome and any antecedent psychiatric syndrome were respectively associated with total and depressive morbidity.