Prognostic Value and Daily Trend of Interleukin-6, Neutrophil CD64 Expression, C-Reactive Protein and Lipopolysaccharide-Binding Protein in Critically Ill Patients: Reliable Predictors of Outcome or Not?

Background: Severe sepsis and/or trauma complicated by multiple organ dysfunction syndrome are the leading causes of death in critically ill patients. The aim of this prospective single-centre study was to assess the prognostic value and daily trend of interleukin-6 (IL-6), neutrophil CD64 expression, C-reactive protein (CRP) and lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) regarding outcome in critically ill patients with severe trauma and/or severe sepsis. Outcome measure was hospital mortality.

Methods: One hundred and two critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit of a tertiary university hospital were enrolled in this prospective study. Blood samples were collected on admission (day 1), days 2 and 3.

Results: CD64 index was 1.6-fold higher on day 1 and 1.78-fold higher on day 2 in non-survivors (p<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) for the CD64 index on day 1 for outcome was 0.727. At a cut-off level of 2.80 sensitivity was 75% and specificity was 65%. Patients with CD64 index level on day 1 higher than 2.80 had 2.4-fold higher probability of dying. Odds ratio is 2.40; 95% CI 0.60-9.67.

Conclusions: CD64 index on day 1 is a fairly good predictor of outcome. AUCs for IL-6, CRP and LBP were < 0.55, suggesting these biomarkers failed to predict outcome.