Pre-operative predictors of poor outcomes in patients undergoing surgical lower extremity revascularisation - Retrospective cohort study.

Background: Surgical lower extremity revascularisation (LER) can lead to poor outcomes that include delayed hospital discharge, in-hospital mortality, major amputations and readmissions. The aim of this study was to identify pre-operative predictors associated with these poor clinical outcomes.

Materials And Methods: All patients (n = 635; mean age 69; male 67.4%) who underwent surgical LER over a 5 year period in a single tertiary vascular institution were identified. Patients considered to have suffered a poor outcome (Group A) included all in-hospital mortality and major amputations, delayed discharges with a length of stay (LOS) over one standard deviation above the mean or any readmission under any specialty within 12 months. Group A included 247 patients (38.9%) and the good outcome group included the remaining 388 patients (61.1%) from which a sample of 99 patients were selected as controls (Group B).

Results: Mean LOS for the entire study group was 14.4 ± 17.5 days, 12 month readmission rate was 29.1% and in-hospital mortality and major amputation rate was 2.7% and 1.4%, respectively. Pre-admission residence other than own home (OR 9.0; 95% CI 1.2-70.1; P = 0.036), atherosclerotic disease burden (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.3-3.8; P = 0.003) and tissue loss (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.6-5.3; P < 0.001) were identified as independent, statistically significant pre-operative predictors of poor outcome. Following discharge, group B patients had a significantly higher rate of amputation free survival and graft infection free survival (P < 0.001) compared to group A.

Conclusion: Recognition of pre-operative predictors of poor outcome should inform case selection and identify high risk patients requiring intensive perioperative optimisation and post discharge follow up.