Emergency Presentation of Esophagogastric Cancer: Predictors and Long-term Prognosis.

Objective: To identify patient factors that are associated with emergency presentation of esophageal and gastric cancer, and further to evaluate long-term prognosis in this cohort.

Background: The incidence of emergency presentation is variable, with the prognosis of patients stabilized and discharged to return for elective surgery unknown.

Methods: The primary admission of patients with esophageal or gastric cancer within the Hospital Episode Statistics database (1997-2012) was used to classify as emergency or elective diagnosis. Multivariate regression analyses were used to identify patient factors associated with emergency diagnosis and prognosis.

Results: A total of 35,807 (29.4%) and 45,866 (39.6%) patients with esophageal and gastric cancer presented as an emergency over the study period. Age ≥70, female sex, non-white ethnicity, Charlson comorbidity index score ≥3 and more deprived Townsend index were independent predictors of emergency cancer diagnosis. Emergency diagnosis was an independent predictor of increased 5-year mortality for all patients with esophageal cancer [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-1.65] and gastric cancer (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.16-1.23). Specifically patients receiving surgery on an elective follow-up admission with an initial emergency diagnosis had a poorer prognosis (esophageal cancer: HR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.27-1.44, gastric cancer: HR = 1.13. 95% CI 1.04-1.22), with a significant increase in liver recurrence (esophageal cancer: 7.1% vs 4.9%; P < 0.001, gastric cancer: 7.0% vs 4.8%; P < 0.001) compared to patients referred electively.

Conclusions: Emergency presentation of esophageal and gastric cancer is associated with a poor prognosis, due to the increased incidence of metastatic disease at diagnosis and a higher recurrence rate after surgery.