The Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva (PNED) system vs. the Rockall score as mortality predictors in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A multicenter prospective study.

Background: The predictive scale for mortality risk in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) proposed by Italy's PNED (Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva) group has not been validated in Latin America since its original publication.

Aim: To compare the PNED system and the Rockall score as mortality predictors in patients hospitalized for NVUGIB.

Material And Methods: A multicenter, prospective, cross-sectional, analytic study was conducted that recruited patients diagnosed with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding within the time frame of 2011 to 2015. Six Mexican hospital centers participated in the study. The Rockall and PNED system scores were calculated, classifying the patients as having mild, moderate, or severe disease. The association between mortality and risk was determined through the chi-square test and relative risk (RR) calculation. Statistical significance was set at a P<.05.

Results: Information on 198 patients was collected. Only 8 patients (4%) died from causes directly associated with bleeding. According to the Rockall score, 46 patients had severe disease (23.2%), 5 of whom died, with a RR of 5.5 (CI 1.35-22.02, P=.006). In relation to the PNED, only 8 patients had severe disease (4%), 5 of whom died, with a RR of 38.7 (CI 11.4-137.3, P=.001).

Conclusions: The PNED system was more selective for classifying a case as severe, but it had a greater predictive capacity for mortality, compared with the Rockall score.