We report 4 experiments investigating auditory hindsight bias-the tendency to overestimate the intelligibility of distorted auditory stimuli after learning their identity. An associative priming manipulation was used to vary the amount of processing fluency independently of prior target knowledge. For hypothetical designs, in which hindsight judgments are made for peers in foresight, we predicted that judgments would be based on processing fluency and that hindsight bias would be greater in the unrelated- compared to related-prime context (differential-fluency hypothesis). Conversely, for memory designs, in which foresight judgments are remembered in hindsight, we predicted that judgments would be based on memory reconstruction and that there would be independent effects of prime relatedness and prior target knowledge (recollection hypothesis). These predictions were confirmed. Specifically, we found support for the differential-fluency hypothesis when a hypothetical design was used in Experiments 1 and 2 (hypothetical group). Conversely, when a memory design was used in Experiments 2 (memory group), 3A, and 3B, we found support for the recollection hypothesis. Together, the results suggest that qualitatively different mechanisms create hindsight bias in the 2 designs. The results are discussed in terms of fluency misattributions, memory reconstruction, anchoring-and-adjustment, sense making, and a multicomponent model of hindsight bias. (PsycINFO Database Record
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Cogn Emot
October 2024
Department of Psychology, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Canada.
Hindsight bias - also known as the knew-it-all-along effect - is a ubiquitous judgment error affecting decision makers. Hindsight bias has been shown to vary across age groups and as a function of contextual factors, such as the decision maker's emotional state. Despite theoretical reasons why emotions might have a stronger impact on hindsight bias in older than in younger adults, age differences in hindsight bias for emotional events remain relatively underexplored.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ Endourol
November 2024
Department of Urology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Dev Psychol
August 2024
Department of Psychology, University of York.
The studies reported here investigated mechanisms underlying children's tendency to commit the conjunction fallacy (judging that a conjunction of two events is more likely than one of the events in isolation) when judging people's characteristics. Study 1 investigated these errors in 4- and 5-year-olds ( = 58) using a newly developed social judgement task in which children judged whether a conjunction or one of its elements would apply to a protagonist. Children made conjunction fallacy errors at chance level.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ Clin Anesth
October 2024
Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States of America. Electronic address:
Study Objective: Hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate the predictability of an event after it has already occurred. We aimed to evaluate whether hindsight bias influences the retrospective interpretation of clinical scenarios in the field of anesthesiology, which relies on clinicians making rapid decisions in the setting of perioperative adverse events.
Design: Two clinical scenarios were developed (intraoperative hypotension and intraoperative hypoxia) with 3 potential diagnoses for each.
Eur J Emerg Med
August 2024
Emergency Department, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Background And Importance: Various biases can impact decision-making and judgment of case quality in the Emergency Department (ED). Outcome and hindsight bias can lead to wrong retrospective judgment of care quality, and implicit bias can result in unjust treatment differences in the ED based on irrelevant patient characteristics.
Objectives: First, to evaluate the extent to which knowledge of an outcome influences physicians' quality of care assessment.
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