Predictors of the Need for Therapeutic Intervention in Older Adult Patients With a Nonvariceal Gastrointestinal Bleed.

Objective: Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common cause of hospitalization in the older adult population. The aim of the study was to identify factors that are associated with the need for a therapeutic intervention in patients older than 65 years with nonvariceal GIB.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of older adult patients admitted to a tertiary care center between 2009 and 2011 with nonvariceal GIB. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of inpatient mortality or need for an endoscopic, surgical, or radiologic procedure to control the bleed or to treat the underlying source of the bleed.

Results: A total of 314 patients were included. In-hospital mortality was 1.3% (4 patients). An intervention to control the bleeding was performed in 15 patients (4.8%). Four patients (1.3%) needed a nonurgent intervention. Twenty-three patients (7.23%) had the primary combined outcome of in-hospital mortality or need for any therapeutic endoscopic, surgical, or radiologic intervention. Factors that were independently associated with the primary outcome were systolic blood pressure within the first 24 hours of <90 mm Hg (odds ratio 3.05, 95% confidence interval 1.08-8.59, = 0.001), and initial hemoglobin of <7 g/dL (odds ratio 4.81, 95% confidence interval 1.56-14.74, = 0.006).

Conclusions: Nonvariceal GIB in older adult patients ceases spontaneously in most patients without an invasive intervention. Systolic blood pressure within the first 24 hours of <90 mm Hg and an initial hemoglobin level of <7 g/dL could be used to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from an urgent therapeutic intervention.