What is the significance of end-stage renal disease risk estimation in living kidney donors?

Two end-stage renal disease (ESRD) risk calculators were recently developed by Grams et al., and Ibrahim et al. to calculate ESRD risk before donation among living kidney donors. However, those calculators have never been studied among potential donors for whom donation was refused due to medical contraindications and compared to a group of donors. We compared 15-year and lifetime ESRD risk of donors and nondonors due to medical cause as estimated by those two calculators. Nondonors due to medical cause (n = 27) had a significantly higher 15-year ESRD risk compared to donors (n = 288) with both calculators (0.25 vs. 0.14, P < 0.001 for that developed by Grams et al. and 2.21 vs. 1.43, P = 0.002 for that developed by Ibrahim et al.). On the contrary, lifetime ESRD risk was not significantly different between the two groups. At both times (15 years and lifetime), we observed a significant overlap of ESRD risk between the two groups. ESRD risk calculators could be complementary to standard screening strategy but cannot be used alone to accept or decline donation.