The impact of parental investment on lifetime reproductive success in Iceland.

Background: Demonstrating the impact that parents have on the fitness of their children is a crucial step towards understanding how parental investment has affected human evolution. Parents not only transfer genes to their children, they also influence their environments. By analyzing reproductive patterns within and between different categories of close relatives, this study provides insight into the genetic and environmental effects that parents have on the fitness of their offspring.

Methods: We use data spanning over two centuries from an exceptionally accurate Icelandic genealogy, Íslendingabók, to analyze the relationship between the fertility rates of close relatives. Also, using genetic data, we determine narrow sense heritability estimates () to further explore the genetic impact on lifetime reproductive success. Finally, we construct four simulations to model the expected contribution of genes and resources on reproductive success.

Results: The relationship between the reproduction of all full sibling pairs was significant and positive across all birth decades ( = 0.19) while the reproductive relationship between parents and offspring was often negative across many decades and undetectable overall ( = 0.00) (Fig. 1 and Table 1). Meanwhile, genetic data among 8,456 pairs of full siblings revealed a narrow sense heritability estimate () of 0.00 for lifetime reproductive success. A resources model (following the rule that resources are transmitted from parents to children, distributed equally among siblings, and are the only factor affecting reproductive success) revealed a similar trend: a negative relationship between parent and offspring reproduction ( =  - 0.35) but a positive relationship among full siblings ( = 0.28). The relationship between parent and offspring lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and full sibling LRS was strongly and positively correlated across time ( = 0.799,  < 0.001). Similarly, the LRS among full siblings was positively correlated with both the LRS among half siblings ( = 0.532,  = 0.011) and the relationship between the LRS of aunts and uncles with their nieces and nephews ( = 0.438,  = 0.042).

Discussion: We show that an individual's lifetime reproductive success is best predicted by the reproduction of their full and half siblings, but not their parents, grandparents or aunts and uncles. Because all siblings share at least one parent, we believe parental investment has had an important impact on fitness. Overall, these results indicate that direct parental investment, but not genes, is likely to have had an important and persistent impact on lifetime reproductive success across more than two centuries of Icelandic history.