A PHP Error was encountered
Severity: Warning
Message: fopen(/var/lib/php/sessions/ci_session5p7vjk8f18cta0762st4enve3bdobjdc): Failed to open stream: No space left on device
Filename: drivers/Session_files_driver.php
Line Number: 177
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
A PHP Error was encountered
Severity: Warning
Message: session_start(): Failed to read session data: user (path: /var/lib/php/sessions)
Filename: Session/Session.php
Line Number: 137
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
Influenza epidemic surveillance and prediction based on electronic health record data from an out-of-hours general practitioner cooperative: model development and validation on 2003-2015 data.
BMC Infect Dis
Epidemiology and Social Medicine (ESOC), Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
Published: January 2017
Background: Annual influenza epidemics significantly burden health care. Anticipating them allows for timely preparation. The Scientific Institute of Public Health in Belgium (WIV-ISP) monitors the incidence of influenza and influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) and reports on a weekly basis. General practitioners working in out-of-hour cooperatives (OOH GPCs) register diagnoses of ILIs in an instantly accessible electronic health record (EHR) system. This article has two objectives: to explore the possibility of modelling seasonal influenza epidemics using EHR ILI data from the OOH GPC Deurne-Borgerhout, Belgium, and to attempt to develop a model accurately predicting new epidemics to complement the national influenza surveillance by WIV-ISP.
Method: Validity of the OOH GPC data was assessed by comparing OOH GPC ILI data with WIV-ISP ILI data for the period 2003-2012 and using Pearson's correlation. The best fitting prediction model based on OOH GPC data was developed on 2003-2012 data and validated on 2012-2015 data. A comparison of this model with other well-established surveillance methods was performed. A 1-week and one-season ahead prediction was formulated.
Results: In the OOH GPC, 72,792 contacts were recorded from 2003 to 2012 and 31,844 from 2012 to 2015. The mean ILI diagnosis/week was 4.77 (IQR 3.00) and 3.44 (IQR 3.00) for the two periods respectively. Correlation between OOHs and WIV-ISP ILI incidence is high ranging from 0.83 up to 0.97. Adding a secular trend (5 year cycle) and using a first-order autoregressive modelling for the epidemic component together with the use of Poisson likelihood produced the best prediction results. The selected model had the best 1-week ahead prediction performance compared to existing surveillance methods. The prediction of the starting week was less accurate (±3 weeks) than the predicted duration of the next season.
Conclusion: OOH GPC data can be used to predict influenza epidemics both accurately and fast 1-week and one-season ahead. It can also be used to complement the national influenza surveillance to anticipate optimal preparation.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5241973 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-016-2175-x | DOI Listing |
Similar Publications
Improving antibiotic prescribing quality in out-of-hours primary care: a mixed-methods study using participatory action research.
JAC Antimicrob Resist
December 2023
Centre for General Practice, Department of Family Medicine and Population Health (FAMPOP), Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Doornstraat 331, B-2610, Antwerp, Belgium.
Background: During out-of-hours (OOH) primary care, GPs overprescribe antibiotics for respiratory tract infections (RTIs). Many interventions have been shown to improve antibiotic prescribing quality, but their implementation in practice remains difficult. Participatory action research (PAR) aims to explore, implement and evaluate change in practice with an active involvement of local stakeholders, while generating knowledge through experience.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAcute care pathways for patients calling the out-of-hours services.
BMC Health Serv Res
February 2020
Department of Clinical Medicine, Centre for Prehospital and Emergency Research, Aalborg University, Søndre Skovvej 15, 9000, Aalborg, Denmark.
Background: In Western countries, patients with acute illness or injury out-of-hours (OOH) can call either emergency medical services (EMS) for emergencies or primary care services (OOH-PC) in less urgent situations. Callers initially choose which service to contact; whether this choice reflect the intended differences in urgency and severity is unknown. Hospital diagnoses and admission rates following an OOH service contact could elucidate this.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFHow do general practitioners and pharmacists experience antibiotic use in out-of-hours primary care? An exploratory qualitative interview study to inform a participatory action research project.
BMJ Open
September 2018
Department of General Practice - Primary and Interdisciplinary Care, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium.
Rationale: Antibiotics (ABs) are one of the most prescribed medications in out-of-hours (OOH) care in Belgium. Developing a better understanding of why ABs are prescribed in this setting is essential to improve prescribing habits.
Objectives: To assess AB prescribing and dispensing challenges for general practitioners (GPs) and pharmacists in OOH primary care, and to identify context-specific elements that can help the implementation of behaviour change interventions to improve AB prescribing in this setting.
Video-recording consultations for educational purposes in out-of-hours primary care: patients and physicians are willing to participate.
Acta Clin Belg
April 2019
a Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Department of Primary and Interdisciplinary Care (ELIZA) - Centre for General Practice (CHA) , University of Antwerp - Campus Drie Eiken, Antwerp , Belgium.
Background Video-recordings of consultations are used by general practitioner (GP) trainees to enable reflection on aspects of knowledge, skills and attitudes. Typically, these recordings are made during office hours in general practice, but little is known about using video-recording during out of hours (OOH) care, which is an important and distinct part of a GP's work. To be able to record consultations during OOH care (i.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFOptimising the quality of antibiotic prescribing in out-of-hours primary care in Belgium: a study protocol for an action research project.
BMJ Open
October 2017
Department of Primary and Interdisciplinary Care (ELIZA) - Centre for General Practice, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium.
Introduction: Antimicrobial resistance is a major public health threat driven by inappropriate antibiotic use, mainly in general practice and for respiratory tract infections. In Belgium, the quality of general practitioners' (GPs) antibiotic prescribing is low. To improve antibiotic use, we need a better understanding of this quality problem and corresponding interventions.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWant AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?
Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!
© LitMetric 2025. All rights reserved.