Diabetes diagnostic thresholds of the glycated hemoglobin A1c and fasting plasma glucose levels considering the 5-year incidence of retinopathy.

Aims: As retinopathy is used as a defining threshold of diabetes, we assessed the glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) values associated with an increased risk of 5-year incidence of retinopathy.

Methods: We studied HbA1c, FPG, and optic fundus findings of 2605 individuals without previously diagnosed diabetes annually during a 5-year period. Retinopathy was examined using non-mydriatic, 45° digital fundus photography. Baseline levels were stratified as <5.3 [34], 5.3-5.6 [34-38], 5.7-6.0 [39-42], 6.1-6.4 [43-47], and ⩾6.5% [48mmol/mol] for HbA1c and <5.0, 5.0-5.5, 5.6-6.0, 6.1-6.9, and ⩾7.0mmol/L for FPG. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze hazard ratios (HRs) associated with HbA1c or FPG for incident retinopathy.

Results: During a total of 11845 person-years, we identified 50 (1.9%) cases of incident retinopathy. The adjusted HRs for incident retinopathy associated with a one-standard deviation increase in HbA1c and FPG were 1.2 (95% confidence intervals: 1.1-1.4) and 1.2 (1.1-1.4), respectively. These HRs were significantly higher for a HbA1c level ⩾6.5% (48mmol/mol) (3.4 [1.1-10.2]) or FPG level ⩾7.0mmol/L (3.6 [1.1-11.6]) than for a HbA1c level <5.3% (34mmol/mol) or FPG level <5.0mmol/L.

Conclusions: A HbA1c value of 6.5% (48mmol/mol) and FPG value of 7.0mmol/L might be proper as diabetes diagnostic thresholds that indicate a high risk of future retinopathy.