Temporal Effect of Bariatric Surgery on Predicted 10-Year and Lifetime Cardiovascular Risk at 1 Month, 6 Months, and 5 Years Following Surgery: A Pilot Study.

Background And Aims: Cardiovascular (CV) risk equations are routinely used to predict risk in nonbariatric populations, but have not been studied in depth in patients undergoing bariatric surgery and specifically those with impaired glucose regulation. The aim of this pilot study was to investigate changes in the 10-year and lifetime predicted CV risk in subjects with impaired glucose regulation before, 1 month, 6 months, and 5 years after bariatric surgery.

Method And Results: A nonrandomized prospective study was conducted of 45 participants with impaired glucose regulation undergoing temporal assessments during follow-up. Body weight, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, lipid profile, and HbA1c were recorded preoperatively, 1 month, 6 months, and 5 years postoperatively. Preoperative and postoperative predicted CV risk was calculated using the QRISK2, QRISK lifetime, and JBS3 calculators. Follow-up rates were 93%, 91%, and 71% at 1 month, 6 months, and 5 years, respectively. The sample had a mean age of 48.8 ± 7.0 years, a mean BMI of 53.9 ± 11.1 kg/m, and a mean HbA1c of 7.5% ± 1.7%. The predicted 10-year QRISK2 score decreased by 35%, 54%, and 24% at 1 month, 6 months, and 5 years, respectively (P < 0.001). The predicted lifetime risk also decreased with the greatest reduction (24.5% with QRISK lifetime and 26.7% with JBS3 lifetime score) observed at 5 years even though the subjects were 5 years older.

Conclusion: Bariatric surgery in patients with impaired glucose regulation is associated with a significant reduction in predicted 10-year and lifetime CV risk in a population that was 5 years older compared to baseline.