Alpha fetoprotein changes predict hepatocellular carcinoma survival beyond the Milan criteria after hepatectomy.

Background: Assessing the outcomes of surgeries for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who exceed the Milan criteria is necessary. Some studies have demonstrated that preoperative or postoperative alpha fetoprotein (AFP) can predict HCC patients' prognoses.

Methods: A total of 280 HCC patients who were positive for AFP and received curative resection were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were classified into three groups according to their preoperative and postoperative AFP levels (group A: normalized AFP; group B: AFP decreases >50%, but continued abnormality; and group C: AFP decreases <50%). Disease-free survival and overall survival rates were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The factors associated with AFP changes were evaluated by logistic regression.

Results: AFP dynamic changes were independently associated with disease-free survival and overall survival rates. Group A had better 3- and 5-y survivals than groups B or C (58.7% and 39.5% versus 31.3% and 14.9% versus 17.1% and 8.8%, P < 0.001). Preoperative AFP, tumor differentiation, tumor diameter, microvascular invasion, and satellite nodules remained significant risk factors that were associated with AFP changes. Furthermore, in group A, the disappearances of AFP within and beyond 8 wk resulted in similar overall survival rates (P > 0.05). Among those with HCC recurrence, the patients treated with resurgery or radiofrequency ablation achieved the best recurrence to death survivals. Those treated with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization achieved the next best survivals.

Conclusions: AFP changes predicted the prognoses of patients with HCC beyond the predictions of the Milan criteria. Preoperative AFP (>400 ng/mL), tumor differentiation, tumor diameter, and satellite nodules were the risk factors related to AFP normalization. The regular follow-up and early detection of recurrent HCCs that are suitable for curative therapies, such as resurgery and radiofrequency ablation, might improve the prognoses. Other therapies, such as transcatheter arterial chemoembolization, might also be effective.