Association of the combination of time-weighted variability of tacrolimus blood level and exposure to low drug levels with graft survival after kidney transplantation.

Background: The variability of tacrolimus blood levels has been shown to be associated with inferior graft survival. However, the effect of variability during the early post-transplantation period has not been evaluated. We sought to evaluate the association between time-weighted variability in the early post-transplantation period and graft survival. We also explored the interaction between drug level variability and exposure to inadequate drug levels.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study included all patients who underwent kidney transplantation in the Rabin Medical Center and were treated with tacrolimus. Time-weighted coefficient of variability (TWCV) was defined as time-weighted standard deviation divided by the mean drug level. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used with the primary outcome of patients and graft survival.

Results: The study population included 803 patients who underwent kidney transplantation between 1 January 2000 and 29 September 2013. The high tertile of TWCV of tacrolimus blood levels was associated with reduced graft survival by univariate and multivariate analyses [hazard ratio (HR) 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-2.53, P = 0.01 and HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.14-2.63, P = 0.01, respectively]. The interaction between high TWCV and exposure to inadequately low drug levels was significantly associated with reduced survival (P = 0.004), while the interaction between TWCV and high drug blood levels was not. One hundred and thirty patients (16.2%) had the combination of high TWCV and exposure to low drug values (<5 ng/mL). These patients had reduced graft survival by univariate and multivariate analyses (HR 2.42, 95% CI 1.57-3.74, P < 0.001 and HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.65-4.11, P < 0.001, respectively).

Conclusions: The combination of high TWCV and exposure to low drug levels might identify high-risk patients in the early post-transplantation period.