Spatial and temporal analysis of Aids cases in Brazil, 1996-2011: increased risk areas over time.

Objective: to identify areas with greater risk of AIDS transmission in Brazil.

Methods: this is an ecological study involving georeference of AIDS cases incidence, prevalence and density in Brazilian municipalities using the Kernel method for the periods 1996-1999, 2000-2003, 2004-2007 and 2008-2011.

Results: 633,512 AIDS cases were reported between 1996-2011; between 2008-2011, there was increased risk of AIDS transmission in Recife-João Pessoa region, the emergence of areas with average density in the regions of Belém, São Luís, Maceió, Aracaju and Salvador, and a decline in the intensity of risk in São Paulo, Campinas and Ribeirão Preto; prevalence rates were most concentrated in the Southeast, South and Midwest regions of the country.

Conclusion: overall, AIDS incidence in Brazil showed successive increases in the periods analyzed; case prevalence indicates spatial clusters, with high concentrations in the Southeast, South and Midwest regions.