A clinical model to identify patients with high-risk plaque by coronary computed tomography angiography.

Objectives: Current clinical models predict the pre-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease, but these models do not predict the presence of high-risk plaques. Thus the objective of this study was to propose a model to predict high-risk plaque assessed by coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography.

Methods: This study was a retrospective cross-sectional study. A clinical model was derived from 2392 patients and verified by 733 patients who underwent coronary CT suspected of coronary artery disease. High-risk plaque was defined as a plaque with positive remodeling (remodeling index>1.1), low attenuation (<30Hounsfield units) and napkin-ring sign. The risk score was calculated from the following 6 variables with a maximum of 24 points: age, sex, hemoglobin A1c, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein and smoking status.

Results: The proportion of patients with high-risk plaque was 11% and 17% in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The area under the receiver operation characteristic curve was 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68 to 0.74) in the derivation cohort and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.79) in the validation cohort. The frequency of high-risk plaques was 4% in the low-risk group (≤8 points) while it was 53% in the high-risk group (≥17 points) of the derivation cohort.

Conclusions: We propose a scoring system to detect high-risk plaque assessed by coronary CT. Patients in the high-risk group have a high prevalence of high-risk plaque and might benefit from lipid lowering therapy.