Emergency Abdominal Surgery in the Elderly: Can We Predict Mortality?

Background: The United Kingdom population is ageing. Half of patients requiring an emergency laparotomy are aged over 70, 20 % die within 30 days, and less than half receive good care. Frailty and delay in management are associated with poor surgical outcomes. P-POSSUM risk scoring is widely accepted, but its validity in patients aged over 70 undergoing emergency laparotomy is unclear.

Aims: To assess if P-POSSUM risk stratification reliably predicts inpatient mortality in this group and establish whether those who died within 30 days received delayed care.

Methods: Observational study of consecutive patients aged 70 and over fulfilling the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit criteria from a tertiary hospital. The predictive value of pre-operative P-POSSUM, ASA, lactate and other routine variables was assessed. Surgical review, decision to operate, consultant surgical review, antibiotic prescription, laparotomy and discharge or death time points were assessed by 30-day survival.

Results: One hundred and ninety-three patients were included. This represented 46.28 % of those undergoing an emergency laparotomy in our centre. Pre-operative P-POSSUM scoring, ASA grade and lactate were moderate predictors of mortality (AUC 0.784 and 0.771, respectively, lactate AUC 0.705, all p ≤ 0.001). No correlation existed between pre-operative P-POSSUM and days to death (p = 0.209), nor were there delays in key management timings in those who died in 30 days.

Conclusions: P-POSSUM scoring may predict inpatient mortality with moderate discrimination. Addition of frailty scoring in this high-risk group might better identify those with a high risk of mortality after emergency laparotomy and would be a fertile area for further research.