Baseline disease is a more important predictor of intestinal necrosis than CT findings in patients with acute mesenteric ischemia.

Objective: Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is a potentially fatal vascular emergency, and several computed tomographic (CT) findings have been introduced to determine the presence of intestinal ischemia or necrosis, although the most useful finding is unknown.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data of 43 consecutive patients with AMI who were treated during the period from 2006 to 2015. Study patients included both superior mesenteric artery dissection (n = 29) and thrombosis (SMAT, n = 14). Epidemiological data, CT findings, and the primary end point defined as the composite of intestinal ischemia or necrosis based on surgical finding and in-hospital mortality were investigated. The classification and regression tree was used to assess determinants of the primary end point, and area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics was used to evaluate discriminating accuracy.

Results: In total, the primary end point occurred in 27.9% (0.0% in superior mesenteric artery dissection and 85.7% in SMAT). Classification and regression tree demonstrated that the baseline disease was the only and strong determinant of the primary outcome (P< .001), which was also confirmed by the highest area under the curve of 0.968 (95% confidence interval, 0.924-1.000).

Conclusions: The baseline disease rather than CT findings is the most important determinant of the primary end point. In patients with AMI, SMAT should undergo exploratory surgery and subsequent surgical treatment without delay.