A longitudinal study of serum insulin and insulin resistance as predictors of weight and body fat gain in African American and Caucasian children.

Background: The influence of insulin and insulin resistance (IR) on children's weight and fat gain is unclear.

Objective: To evaluate insulin and IR as predictors of weight and body fat gain in children at high risk for adult obesity. We hypothesized that baseline IR would be positively associated with follow-up body mass index (BMI) and fat mass.

Subjects/methods: Two hundred and forty-nine healthy African American and Caucasian children aged 6-12 years at high risk for adult obesity because of early-onset childhood overweight and/or parental overweight were followed for up to 15 years with repeated BMI and fat mass measurements. We examined baseline serum insulin and homeostasis model of assessment-IR (HOMA-IR) as predictors of follow-up BMI Z-score and fat mass by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in mixed model longitudinal analyses accounting for baseline body composition, pubertal stage, sociodemographic factors and follow-up interval.

Results: At baseline, 39% were obese (BMI⩾95th percentile for age/sex). Data from 1335 annual visits were examined. Children were followed for an average of 7.2±4.3 years, with a maximum follow-up of 15 years. After accounting for covariates, neither baseline insulin nor HOMA-IR was significantly associated with follow-up BMI (Ps>0.26), BMIz score (Ps>0.22), fat mass (Ps>0.78) or fat mass percentage (Ps>0.71). In all models, baseline BMI (P<0.0001), body fat mass (P<0.0001) and percentage of fat (P<0.001) were strong positive predictors for change in BMI and fat mass. In models restricted to children without obesity at baseline, some but not all models had significant interaction terms between body adiposity and insulinemia/HOMA-IR that suggested less gain in mass among those with greater insulin or IR. The opposite was found in some models restricted to children with obesity at baseline.

Conclusions: In middle childhood, BMI and fat mass, but not insulin or IR, are strong predictors of children's gains in BMI and fat mass during adolescence.