Early α-fetoprotein response predicts survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

Background: It is not clear whether tumor marker responses can predict survival during sorafenib treatment in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated whether the α-fetoprotein (AFP) response is associated with survival in patients with advanced HCC treated with sorafenib.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the records of 126 patients with advanced HCC treated with sorafenib between 2007 and 2012. An AFP response was defined as >20% decrease from baseline. At 6-8 weeks after commencing sorafenib, AFP and radiological responses were assessed by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors.

Results: The median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were 6.2 and 3.5 months, respectively. Of the study population, a partial response (PR) was identified in 5 patients (4.0%), stable disease (SD) in 65 patients (51.6%), and progressive disease (PD) in 57 patients (44.4%), respectively. AFP non-response was an independent prognostic factor for poor OS (median 10.9 months for AFP response vs 5.2 months for AFP non-response), together with Child-Pugh B, tumor diameter ≥10 cm, and portal vein invasion (all P<0.05), and PFS (median 5.3 months for AFP response vs 2.9 months for AFP non-response), together with tumor diameter ≥10 cm and portal vein invasion (all P<0.05). SD or PR was more frequently found in AFP responders than in non-responders (72.1% vs 47.0%, respectively; P=0.007). In a sub-group with SD, OS (median 12.7 vs 5.8 months, respectively) and PFS (median 9.1 vs 3.7 months, respectively) were significantly longer in AFP responders than in non-responders (all P<0.05).

Conclusion: Early AFP response may be useful for predicting survival in patients with advanced HCC treated with sorafenib.