Socio-Economic Factors Influencing on Total Fertility Rate in Iran: A Panel Data Analysis for the Period of 2002-2012.

Introduction: Over the last few decades, total fertility rate (TFR) has followed a downward trend in Iran. The consequences of this trend from the perspectives of some are negative. Considering the macro-population policies in recent years, this study aimed to examine the effect of some macro socio-economic variables, including divorce, marriage, urbanization, and unemployment rate on TFR in Iran from 2002 to 2012.

Methods: This time series research was conducted in 2015 using the databases of the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR) and the Statistical Center of Iran. The study population was the related data of provinces in the selected variables. The main methods used in the research were the common unit root test, Pedroni Cointegration test, redundant fixed effects tests, correlated random effects-Hausman test, and panel least squares of fixed effects. In order to determine the suitable model for estimating panel data, likelihood ratio and Huasman tests were done using Eviews software, and the fixed effects regression model was chosen as the dominant model.

Results: The results indicated that the divorce rate had a negative and significant effect on TFR (p < 0.05). A positive and significant relationship between marriage rate and TFR variables also was observed (p < 0.05). Urbanization rate (p = 0.24) and unemployment rate (p = 0.36) had no significant relationship with TFR. According to F statistic, significance of the overall model also was confirmed (p < 0.001).

Conclusion: Due to the lower effect of the studied factors on the reduction of TFR, it seems that variables other than the ones studied, as well as cultural factors and values, might be fundamental factors for this change in the country.