Predictors of short-term mortality, cognitive and physical decline in older adults in northwest Russia: a population-based prospective cohort study.

Background: The classical phenotype, accumulated deficit model and self-report approach of frailty were found not useful in older adults in northwest Russia. More research is needed to identify predictors of adverse outcomes in this population.

Aim: The aim of this study is to identify predictors of mortality, autonomy and cognitive decline in a population that is characterized by a high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rate.

Methods: A population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals 65+. Anthropometry, medical history nutritional status were recorded. An evaluation of cognitive, physical and autonomy function, spirometry, and laboratory tests were performed. The total follow-up was 5 years. Multiple imputation, backward stepwise Cox regression analysis, C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis and the bootstrapping techniques were used to analyze the data.

Results: We found that the combination of increasing age, male sex, low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s and anemia was associated with mortality for people 65+. The substitution of anemia with anemia + high level of C-reactive protein (hCRP) and the addition of high brain natriuretic peptide (hBNP) levels improved the classification of older persons at risk for mortality.

Discussion/conclusion: The combination of low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s, anemia with hCRP levels and hBNP identified older persons at a higher risk for mortality. These predictors may be used for the development of a prediction model to detect older people who are at risk for adverse health outcomes in northwest Russia.