Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
|---|---|
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf6574 | DOI Listing |
Publication Analysis
Top Keywords
Similar Publications
Advancing forecasting capabilities: A contrastive learning model for forecasting tropical cyclone rapid intensification.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
January 2025
Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266000, China.
Tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly those that rapidly intensify (RI), pose a significant threat due to the uncertainty in forecasting them. RI TC periods, which intensify by at least 13 m/s within 24 h, remain challenging to forecast accurately. Existing models achieve a probability of detection (POD) of 82.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFSpatio-temporal risk prediction of leptospirosis: A machine-learning-based approach.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis
January 2025
Institute of Exact and Applied Sciences, University of New Caledonia, Nouméa, Province Sud, New Caledonia.
Background: Leptospirosis is a neglected zoonotic disease prevalent worldwide, particularly in tropical regions experiencing frequent rainfall and severe cyclones, which are further aggravated by climate change. This bacterial zoonosis, caused by the Leptospira genus, can be transmitted through contaminated water and soil. The Pacific islands bear a high burden of leptospirosis, making it crucial to identify key factors influencing its distribution.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFA scoping review and thematic analysis of the effects of tropical cyclones on diarrheal diseases.
Environ Epidemiol
February 2025
Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Background: Tropical cyclones pose significant health risks and can trigger outbreaks of diarrheal diseases in affected populations. Although the effects of individual hazards, such as rainfall and flooding, on diarrheal diseases are well-documented, the complex multihazard nature of tropical cyclones is less thoroughly explored. To date, no dedicated review comprehensively examines the current evidence and research on the association between tropical cyclones and diarrheal diseases.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAssessment and application of tropical cyclone clustering in the South China Sea.
Sci Rep
January 2025
College of Ocean and Meteorology & South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, 524088, Zhanjiang, Guangdong, China.
Accurate classification of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks is essential for evaluating and mitigating the potential disaster risks associated with TCs. In this study, three commonly used methods (K-means, Fuzzy C-Means, and Self-Organizing Maps) are assessed for clustering historical TC tracks that originated in the South China Sea from 1949 to 2023. The results show that the K-means method performs the best, while the Fuzzy C-Means and Self-Organizing Maps methods are also viable alternatives.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAssessing blue carbon in mangrove ecosystems of Seychelles.
J Environ Manage
January 2025
Deakin Marine Research and Innovation Centre, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood Campus, Burwood, VIC 3125, Australia; Centre for Nature Positive Solutions, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia.
Mangrove forests play an important role in climate change mitigation and adaptation, globally recognized as natural climate solution. The protection and restoration of mangrove ecosystems are especially important to Small Island Developing States, like Seychelles, due to their vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise and tropical cyclones. Therefore, it is crucial for countries like Seychelles to develop baseline information on the status of their mangrove forests to guide conservation and management actions.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWant AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?
Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!