Risk of Lung Cancer Associated with COPD Phenotype Based on Quantitative Image Analysis.

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a risk factor for lung cancer. This study evaluates alternative measures of COPD based on spirometry and quantitative image analysis to better define a phenotype that predicts lung cancer risk.

Methods: A total of 341 lung cancer cases and 752 volunteer controls, ages 21 to 89 years, participated in a structured interview, standardized CT scan, and spirometry. Logistic regression, adjusted for age, race, gender, pack-years, and inspiratory and expiratory total lung volume, was used to estimate the odds of lung cancer associated with FEV1/FVC, percent voxels less than -950 Hounsfield units on the inspiratory scan (HUI) and percent voxels less than -856 HU on expiratory scan (HUE).

Results: The odds of lung cancer were increased 1.4- to 3.1-fold among those with COPD compared with those without, regardless of assessment method; however, in multivariable modeling, only percent voxels <-856 HUE as a continuous measure of air trapping [OR = 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.06] and FEV1/FVC < 0.70 (OR = 1.71; 95% CI, 1.21-2.41) were independent predictors of lung cancer risk. Nearly 10% of lung cancer cases were negative on all objective measures of COPD.

Conclusion: Measures of air trapping using quantitative imaging, in addition to FEV1/FVC, can identify individuals at high risk of lung cancer and should be considered as supplementary measures at the time of screening for lung cancer.

Impact: Quantitative measures of air trapping based on imaging provide additional information for the identification of high-risk groups who might benefit the most from lung cancer screening. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(9); 1341-7. ©2016 AACR.