The utility of the MELD score in predicting mortality following liver resection for metastasis.

Background: The MELD score has been demonstrated to be predictive of hepatectomy outcomes in mixed patient samples of primary and secondary liver cancers. Because MELD is a measure of hepatic dysfunction, prior conclusions may rely on the high prevalence of cirrhosis observed with primary lesions. This study aims to evaluate MELD score as a predictor of mortality and develop a risk prediction model for patients specifically undergoing hepatic metastasectomy.

Methods: ACS-NSQIP 2005-2013 was analyzed to select patients who had undergone liver resections for metastases. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis determined the MELD score most associated with 30-day mortality. A literature review identified variables that impact hepatectomy outcomes. Significant factors were included in a multivariable analysis (MVA). A risk calculator was derived from the final multivariable model.

Results: Among the 14,919 patients assessed, the mortality rate was 2.7%, and the median MELD was 7.3 (range = 34.4). A MELD of 7.24 was identified by ROC (sensitivity = 81%, specificity = 51%, c-statistic = 0.71). Of all patients above this threshold, 4.4% died at 30 days vs. 1.1% in the group ≤7.24. This faction represented 50.1% of the population but accounted for 80.3% of all deaths (p < 0.001). The MVA revealed mortality to be increased 2.6-times (OR = 2.55, 95%CI 1.69-3.84, p < 0.001). A risk calculator was successfully developed and validated.

Conclusions: MELD>7.24 is an important predictor of death following hepatectomy for metastasis and may prompt a detailed assessment with the provided risk calculator. Attention to MELD in the preoperative setting will improve treatment planning and patient education prior to oncologic liver resection.