Predictors of performance in an ophthalmology residency program.

Objective: To assess the value of current selection criteria and additional factors as predictors of performance in an ophthalmology residency training program.

Design: A retrospective study.

Participants: Data were collected from the files of 166 residents who were collectively trained in an ophthalmology residency program from 2000 to 2013.

Methods: The program's selection criteria included medical school grade point average (GPA), Saudi licensing examination (SLE) score, multiple-choice question ophthalmology selection (MCQ) examination score, and interview mark. Indicators of performance included average scores in the promotion examination for 4 years of training (average R), King Saud University fellowship examination (KSU) score, and Saudi Board in Ophthalmology examination (SBO) score. An average of KSU and SBO scores was also used as a performance indicator. Times of program completion and average performance score across all years in the residency program were used as second-level indicators of performance.

Results: There were strong correlations between the MCQ examination score and each training performance indicator (average R, KSU score, SBO score, and average of KSU and SBO scores; p = 0.002, 0.008, 0.05, and 0.002, respectively). The interview mark correlated well with average R (p = 0.001) but not with other indicators. The MCQ examination score and the interview mark were the only predictors of second-level indicators of performance (p = 0.009 and 0.029, respectively).

Conclusions: The MCQ examination score and interview mark were the 2 best predictors of performance as an ophthalmology resident. GPA and SLE score were poor predictors of performance.