A simple discrete generation Markov metapopulation model is formulated for studying the persistence and extinction dynamics of a species in a given region which is divided into a large number of sites or patches. Assuming a linear site occupancy probability from one generation to the next we obtain exact expressions for the time evolution of the expected number of occupied sites and the mean-time to extinction (MTE). Under quite general conditions we show that the MTE, to leading order, is proportional to the logarithm of the initial number of occupied sites and in precise agreement with similar expressions for continuous time-dependent stochastic models. Our key contribution is a novel application of generating function techniques and simple asymptotic methods to obtain a second order asymptotic expression for the MTE which is extremely accurate over the entire range of model parameter values.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.06.010 | DOI Listing |
PLoS One
October 2024
Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India.
Chaos
September 2024
School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Complex systems, characterized by intricate interactions among numerous entities, give rise to emergent behaviors whose data-driven modeling and control are of utmost significance, especially when there is abundant observational data but the intervention cost is high. Traditional methods rely on precise dynamical models or require extensive intervention data, often falling short in real-world applications. To bridge this gap, we consider a specific setting of the complex systems control problem: how to control complex systems through a few online interactions on some intervenable nodes when abundant observational data from natural evolution is available.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPhilos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
October 2024
Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA.
The spatial availability of social resources is speculated to structure animal movement decisions, but the effects of social resources on animal movements are difficult to identify because social resources are rarely measured. Here, we assessed whether varying availability of a key social resource-access to receptive mates-produces predictable changes in movement decisions among bighorn sheep in Nevada, the United States. We compared the probability that males made long-distance 'foray' movements, a critical driver of connectivity, across three ecoregions with varying temporal duration of a socially mediated factor, breeding season.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ R Soc Interface
July 2024
Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
Mathematical models in ecology and epidemiology must be consistent with observed data in order to generate reliable knowledge and evidence-based policy. Metapopulation systems, which consist of a network of connected sub-populations, pose technical challenges in statistical inference owing to nonlinear, stochastic interactions. Numerical difficulties encountered in conducting inference can obstruct the core scientific questions concerning the link between the mathematical models and the data.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPLoS Comput Biol
June 2024
Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne Université and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France.
As the spatial arrangement of trees planted along streets in cities makes their bases potential ecological corridors for the flora, urban tree bases may be a key contributor to the overall connectivity of the urban ecosystem. However, these tree bases are also a highly fragmented environment in which extinctions are frequent. The goal of this study was to assess the plant species' ability to survive and spread through urban tree bases.
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