Admission Serum Calcium Levels Improve the GRACE Risk Score Prediction of Hospital Mortality in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Background: The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score has been extensively validated to predict risk during hospitalization in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Recently, serum calcium has been suggested as an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction; however, the relationship between the 2 has not been evaluated.

Hypothesis: The combination of GRACE risk score and serum calcium could provide better performance in risk prediction.

Methods: The study enrolled 2229 consecutive patients with ACS. Independent predictors were identified by a multivariate logistic regression model. The incremental prognostic value added by serum calcium to the GRACE score was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results: Patients in the upper quartiles of serum calcium presented with lower in-hospital mortality (odds ratios for 3 upper quartiles vs lowest quartile, respectively: 0.443, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.206-0.953; 0.243, 95% CI: 0.090-0.654; and 0.210, 95% CI: 0.082-0.538). Area under the curve increased significantly after adding serum calcium to the GRACE score (0.685 vs 0.746; Z = 2.617, P = 0.009). Furthermore, inclusion of serum calcium in the GRACE score enhanced NRI (0.524; P = 0.009) and IDI (0.011; P = 0.003).

Conclusions: Lower serum calcium level on admission is a possible indicator of increased risk of in-hospital mortality in ACS patients. Inclusion of serum calcium in the GRACE score may lead to a more accurate prediction of this risk. Large prospective studies are needed to confirm this finding.