Predictors of Survival After Recurrence in Women With Early-Stage Endometrial Carcinoma.

Objective: Factors predictive of survival after recurrent early-stage endometrial carcinoma have not been thoroughly investigated. The purpose of this study was to explore factors that impact disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) after recurrence in women with early-stage endometrial carcinoma.

Materials And Methods: After institutional review board approval, we identified 104 women with 2009 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage I to II uterine endometrioid carcinoma who developed disease recurrence between January 1990 and December 2014. The Kaplan-Meier approach and Cox regression analysis were used to assess DSS and OS after recurrence and to determine factors influencing these survival end points.

Results: Median age of the study cohort was 65 years with a median follow-up time of 42.8 months after hysterectomy. Median time to recurrence was 15.8 months. Recurrences were diagnosed in 60 patients (57.7%) who were originally managed with observation after hysterectomy and in 44 patients (42.3%) who were initially managed with adjuvant radiation treatment. Fifty-six patients (54%) had pelvic recurrence (vaginal and/or pelvic), whereas 48 (46%) had extrapelvic recurrence. Five-year DSS and OS for the entire study population was 44% and 37%, respectively. Five-year DSS and OS were longer for patients with pelvic recurrence compared with patients with extrapelvic recurrence (66% vs 18% and 55% vs 17%, P < 0.0001). Five-year DSS was also longer for radiation-naive patients than for radiation-treated patients (51% vs 34%, P = 0.023). On multivariate analysis of DSS and OS, pelvic recurrence (P < 0.001) was the only significant predictor of longer DSS and OS.

Conclusions: In women with recurrent early-stage endometrioid carcinoma, our study suggests that site of recurrence (pelvic vs extra pelvic) is the only predictor of survival. In addition, we found that radiation naivete and pelvic recurrence correlated with longer DSS and OS.