Pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) to predict adverse fetal outcomes in Chinese: What is the optimal cutoff value?

A low level of PAPP-A predicts adverse fetal outcomes. As Chinese pregnant women have a higher level of PAPP-A, the predictive performance of PAPP-A and its optimal cutoff value might be different. This study aims to establish a PAPP-A cutoff value in the Chinese population that identifies adverse fetal outcomes. We retrospectively analysed 4936 spontaneous singleton pregnancies of Chinese women who underwent first-trimester combined Down's screening in our unit from March 2010 to January 2014 and had delivery information available. A composite adverse fetal outcome encompassed intrauterine fetal loss (including miscarriages and stillbirths), and live births either before 32 weeks or weighing less than -2 standard deviation (SD) for gestation. The area under the curve of the receiver-operator characteristic curve for prediction of the composite adverse outcome using PAPP-A was 0.626 (95% CI =0.612-0.640, p < 0.0001). PAPP-A ≤ 0.23 multiples of median (MoM) identified 0.6% of Chinese pregnant women to be at significant risk of adverse fetal outcome (positive likelihood ratio 11.2, positive predictive value 21.4%) despite a low sensitivity (5.1%, 95% CI =1.9-10.8). The negative predictive value was high (97.7%). The commonly used cutoff of 0.4 MoM was associated with a positive likelihood ratio of 3.7 only. A prospective study is warranted.