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Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America. | LitMetric

AI Article Synopsis

  • Climate change and land-use changes are key factors causing habitat and biodiversity loss, especially in Latin America, and future projections for biome shifts are needed to understand their impacts better.
  • Research indicates that by 2099, 5-6% of the region may experience biome shifts mainly due to climate change, possibly surpassing land-use change effects if land-use expansion is controlled by the mid-century.
  • The study advocates for early efforts to limit land-use changes and protect natural vegetation, suggesting this could help mitigate climate change impacts later in the century, while also informing socio-economic strategies for biome conservation.

Article Abstract

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.

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Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13355DOI Listing

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