Wider horizons, wiser choices: horizon scanning for public health protection and improvement.

Background: Systematic continuous thinking about the future helps organizations, professions and communities to both prepare for, and shape, the future. This becomes ever more critical given the accelerating rate at which new data emerge, and in some cases uncertainties around their reliability and interpretation. Businesses with the capability to filter and analyse vast volumes of data to create knowledge and insights requiring action have a competitive advantage. Similarly Government and the public sector, including public health can be more effective and efficient through the early identification of emerging issues (both threats and opportunities).

Methods: Horizon scanning approaches, and the use of resulting intelligence related to health protection and improvement were reviewed.

Results: Public health horizon scanning systems have to date focussed on health technologies and infectious diseases. While these have been successful there is a major gap in terms of non-infectious hazards and health improvement.

Conclusion: Any system to meet this need must recognize the changed environment for delivering front line public health services and the critical role of local authorities and the local democratic process. This presents opportunities and challenges and this paper explores those dynamics describing an existing environment and health horizon scanning system which could readily and rapidly be re-engineered to provide a national service.