Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence Rates by Histological Type in 1975-2008: A Population-Based Study in Osaka, Japan.

Background: Monitoring trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality is important for the evaluation of cancer control activities. We investigated recent trends in age-standardized incidence rates by histological type of lung cancer in Osaka, Japan.

Methods: Cancer incidence data for 1975-2008 were obtained from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Lung cancer mortality data with population data in Osaka during 1975-2012 were obtained from vital statistics. We examined trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for all histological types and age-standardized incidence rates by histological type and age group using a joinpoint regression model.

Results: The age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer levelled off or slightly increased from 1975-2008, with an annual percentage change of 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%-0.4%) for males and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9%-1.3%) for females, and the mortality rate decreased by 0.9% (95% CI, 1.2%-0.7%) for males and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.8%-0.3%) for females. The incidence rates of squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) and small cell carcinoma (SMC) significantly decreased for both genders, whereas that of adenocarcinoma (ADC) significantly increased among almost all age groups in both genders.

Conclusions: The incidence rates of SQC and SMC decreased with the decline in smoking prevalence, which probably explains the change in trends in the incidence rates of lung cancer from the mid-1980s. However, the reason for the increase in ADC remains unclear. Therefore, trends in incidence rates of lung cancer should be carefully monitored, especially for ADC, and the associations between ADC and its possible risk factors should be studied.